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??20?

Brian Kernighan
?hhh??Fred Brooksg???ÿh??h???i"?ã?????'25????????j?k???L?g??õ????????h????l??

Ed Yourdon
????hk????ôh??1994?Brooks?j???

?j?????1975h???_??h'gL????d?h?20???? ??K??????hYBrooks?????j??ÿ?10000

?L????ô??hK?????1975i???Brooks????h?S?jg???j?Brooks?????1975?¼

????gBrooks???tJ??????????????ô?i??ôû????g??g??g

??????h??h??š???"?z????????h??Brooks??????°?L??

??¡Brooks??k???kk?jh?ôU?????K??????k??????????j??g????Brooks?L??1986?IEEE Softwarel??û?h?Brooks1986K d???û?

?j????j??õ???Ž?h?Ij???i???????i??j??2000??????ý?

Jason Bennett

??L???j?û??jh?1975??????IBMi?????h??????DEC?PDP???FORTRANCOBOL???h?PL/1C??????'?Bell??·??????áFrederick Brooks????hBrooks??IBM???1960?System/360???OS/360????h?Brooks?????û??????'??jh?h_??????????????º???jg???????


??õg
????ô????????g?l??L????g?Brooks???

1 _???L???

2 ??õL_?????

3 ?L??the tar pit???L???

?l¼?????Brooks??????û?MMM???Y??????j??????h?????Brooks????h??g????hµ?l?L???h?????L????????????Brooks 1986?û????Brooks?????ÿ??h???j??õl??ô????'??L

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???õg
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?û??Apache???û?ÿ??g??????????h?????ÿº??û???j?

S????û????????h???????h?h·ÿ????ò????z?h?ã?????òñ??????????????MMM?øãô??

?S?h??????U???????????ô?????????????????

Francis Glassborow
?h?????j?h???????z????g??????l????

??þj??????h????????????DD???????L??h???š

???????µ°??jd·h?_?h????¶??eIBM?h?h?????ÿ??????Windows95M8 betaI?950?

Chris Larson
Frederick P. Brooks, Jr. ?????20??????Brooks????????g??????L??I??Brooks?????????

???
??ô?j?L??ß?j?l??????j??Brooks???????

Brooks?´??????©??????Brooks??L?gj?U???????òl??????????h??t??????hµ??

?hJ???l??Brooks???????????

?h?????????UBrooks??¼?L???????????lô

ô?ô
Brooks?h??Y?gh?????lL?;??U????

Brooks??·h?g??;??????i??h???hj?h???h²?j

j??
Brooks??j?û?ÿh??l???g??????????j???j???l????

??????????BrooksLDD??J??DD???k???Brooks???????

Frank Chance

1975g??l?1995??µl£??????Brooks??g??????g????SAPOracle??Windows2000?h??g?????DD???h

?
Brooks???jL?'jh???????h?????û??????û???????????????????????????g????hhY???û?ô???DD?z????õ?????ÿ??i?

???1975????hWindowsNT5.0hµ?1997???1998?1998i?1999???Windows2000h?L?

5,000?

35,000,000 ??


?NT5.0???????BrooksL???1975h??

?NT5.0??35,000,000 ??±g??1994?'?
5,000 ? X 5 = 25,000 ?

35,000,000 ? / 25,000 ? = 1,400 ???


???????L?1,400ÿ???j???J???h???hg?J??ô'Microsoft??hU1,400??

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Brooks?h?g??'

1

h????L??????g?j?û??'ô??i????

2 ?

???????L?'??L???Lã??

3 ??

??j?û??'ô?????ã??

4 ???

Brooks???ÿ?L?

231

331 491

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?Microsoft??9?1,400ÿ??õ12,600ÿ???ÿh?'??h??h??BrookshlL??ÿ??h??DD????????Microsoft???25,200ÿ??ôMicrosoft??'??h1975???i?BrooksõL1,000ÿ??õ1,400ÿ???gô1975?199520?1.75%ÿ???Brooksh?DD???õ???????K?????ÿ???'?????BrooksL???á?h?ñ??????i????k??

???????j?º;??µl?õ??l????????h????µl?õ???j?ã????????

?
Brooks?????K??????õg?????????ô???á?h??????o??????·?j????h???LhY???õj??Brooks????Brooks???????h??K??

TAL COHEN
??ÿ¶??i?????h??û?i?

??h????£man-months??person-months???L??g??j£???Y?g????ô?

???w??û;?hh???????µ??1975???????Frederick Brooks???¸???

70???????lL?????????û???????????????I?Brooks??hd

20?Brooks?

??;????20?

???????û?h??L?????????Ig?h???L??hg?????thJ??????????h?÷??????ji????i????DD??????????h?L?lg????? BrooksL???K????????g¹????????L?Y??ÿ?????h?????????????l??

??????????????????20??IDD?DD?Brooks??j½???¶90?µ??????jÿhº?18????18µi???????117µ??

°??Brooks?û?IFIP86?gComputer????Brooks?³?1986??????????Brooks????g

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